I will refer to my family business to illustrate a few points of this article. The business started 20 years ago, in Brazil, with my mother making chocolate candies in our kitchen and selling it in our living room, and all the kids and my father somehow helped her. The business (Fany Bombons Café – FBC) grew into two cafés, today selling candies, cakes, sandwiches, and beverages. Based on the data available, it is still possible to make smart seasonal purchase decisions.

Analyze last year’s inventory
While planning the end of the year purchase of raw material, products and packaging, take a look at your last year’s sales and production. It is a lot easier to make a decision when you have your own data, so that you can forecast your sales, set goals and have a purchasing plan for the holiday season. You should take a moment to go over your database and sales in the beginning of November until the end of December 2002.

Evaluate consumption of raw material
FBC usually takes in consideration the previous year sales, and checks out how much chocolate was melted during that period.

Just in time production
One advantage of chocolate stores that have their own production is that they can produce per order. FBC is always ready to accept last minute orders. Yet, even in the chocolate business, there is a need to buy certain packaging such as baskets, ribbons, and boxes that are sometimes not refundable, so it is important to consider very seriously if it is worth it to buy seasonal items.

Vendors’ refund policy
Before considering the size of the orders, talk to vendors about their return policy and if they deliver just in time.

Other option is to reward clients who preorder by, for example, giving discounts. FBC offers discounts if cakes and holiday merchandises’ orders are placed and paid for by December 10th, even if the customers are ordering for delivery on December 25th.

In case even by revising last year’s sales and considering the retail predictions from the trade associations related to your business, you still end up with a lot of stock, consider offering after holiday discounts and creating bundles.